Alaska

 

I write this on the morning of the 15th of April, August, 2025.

There are few very real historic moments that you live through if you are perhaps lucky, or

unlucky enough, depending on your disposition. Personally, I am excited, as, it could go

either way and of course this is the great fear, but also, paradoxically it is exactly this

unknown factor that is so stimulating. But then, is the outcome so unknown to us all, I

wonder? So, in a personal attempt at trying to foresee the outcome, I am writing this short

article in an attempt at guessing which outcome will be resolved upon by the two leaders

Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump.

But before I go any further, I should mention that the substance of my point of view has been

informed principally by three sources which I have been following for some weeks and even

months now, and it would be amiss if I did not refer to these principal sources. At the same

time, I should also say, before I do, that my forecast here is completely my own and is merely

based upon the reports that I have understood to be the case, and the conclusion that I have

reached here is completely based on my own interpretation of the facts as they appear to be

and so I am completely responsible for the viewpoints expressed here and no blame should be

attached to the following sources that I will now be referencing.

So first of all, I should like to say that in the last few months I have been principally struck by

the discourse of Professor Gilbert Doctorow who has been good enough to consent to a

number of interviews offering his analysis on the events as they have been unfolding and

particularly over the course of the last few months now that the conflict in Ukraine would

appear to be coming to an end, at least in its current format. Doctorow, I have found, is

particularly good at assessing the facts as he sees them, as opposed to being swayed by

narratives which, at least here in the west, are to a large extent merely propaganda,

misinformation or just plain spin. As a former business man who lived and worked in the

Russian Federation, Doctorow brings a real understanding of Russian culture, in all its many

guises, as well as an incredibly lucid point of view on the west, and particularly opinions

coming out of Brussels where he now resides. Like a lot of the pundits who interview him, I

have been particularly impressed at his take on Donald Trump who is largely dismissed as an

incompetent narcissistic twit by many in the main stream media. Doctorow, however, does

not by into such facile narratives, which are merely political. Rather, he assesses the actions

of the man and has the critical insight, he is after all a historian, to weight up the words that

he says to the global media, which he generally treats with utter contempt, and then when

asked to comment on Trump’s often highly volatile soundbites, instead of merely

commenting on the superficial nature of the dialogue, he attempts to probe behind the

rationale of the words, delivered typically in response to a particular context, and typically

offers then a completely different interpretation that generally grants Trump the dignity and

respect that Doctorow clearly has for this most consummate politician.

For example, when pressed by Judge Napolitano about Trump’s remarks that he would give

no concessions to Putin when it came to the integrity of the sovereignty of Ukraine while

only a few days previously having made comments after a telephone conversation with Putin

that there would be a ‘swapping of territories’, Doctorow simply sighed with a kind of happy

frown before remarking quite matter of factly that Trump was obviously lying to one of the

parties before referring then to Machiavelli. This is realpolitik. When further pressed by the

Judge in order to explain what exactly he meant, the good Doctor went onto explain that

Trump was under enormous pressure by the Neocons and more ominously all of the different

lobbies that they represented and with whom he power shares with, the Europeans and

President Zelensky, whom he had just come off the phone with, and not forgetting his Maga

Base who want to see the complete cessation of the war as they were promised.

By stating all of the above, Doctorow was simply laying out the situation as it is, and so

without any prejudice allowing the listeners to assess the very real complexities that lay

ahead. It was too soon, according to Doctorow, for Trump to tell the Europeans and Zelensky

that they were walking away. If he had done so before even meeting with Putin then he would

be leaving himself in a very vulnerable position with not much room to manoeuvre, and this

simply makes an awful lot of sense, at least to me. So, this is the first point that I had to

consider before making up my own mind.

The second point. The second point that really impressed me, also, was the assessment of

Alexander Mercouris who I have been following now with much pleasure over the last few

years. Like Doctorow, Mercouris comes from a very interesting background born into a

Greek family that has lived for the majority of his life in the UK and who, like Doctorow, has

a vast amount of experience in international relations over the years and so brings the

hard won knowledge of a practitioner with him to all that he reports on. His lengthy reports,

outside of the Duran which he hosts with his colleague Alex Christoforou, are generally

given over to the events on the front in Ukraine as they are happening and they are generally

incredibly well informed, his information coming to him from a multitude of international

sources, the Kremlin and Russian being well to the fore; Mercouris has a deep mistrust of all

western media and so relies heavily upon alternative sources, he is a great friend and

colleague of the Chicago based advocate of the Realist School of Geo-Politics and History,

Dr. John Mearsheimer, for example.

Now, in the appraisal of Alexander Mercouris, which he posted last night, he simply

unpacked a statement issued by Vladimir Putin about the nature of the upcoming bilateral

conference commenting on the very careful and artful construct of it, before then exploring

the team of Russian representatives that will be joining Putin to meet Trump later today.

Mercouris’s point was very simple, yet poignant. And it was that not one of the five man

delegation was from the military, the Minister of Defence who will be attending is a civilian

he made the point, and so by simply taking this observation onboard, he said gleefully

smiling, as is typical of his very amusing manner, then the substance of the meeting should be

abundantly clear. The inference being that the men that were representing the Russian

Federation were mainly business men, in a nutshell, so clearly the nature of the discussions,

At least on the Russian side, would be primarily to do with future possible business ventures

that would be mutually beneficial to both countries and to the world in general. Mercouris

like Doctorow is of the opinion that the alternative would simply be all out war, which would

be in no one’s interest. At least, neither of the both parties!

Finally, the last commentator I wish to cite here is none other than the formidable financial

trader and geo-political commentator Alex Krainer; Krainer, like Doctorow and Mercouris,

Mearsheimer and Colonel McGreggor and Co. (there is a whole host of alternative sources of

information freely available on YouTube and which I have been relying heavily on ever since

the events of 2022 ) is another lone voice in the wilderness who simply offers his expertise

as a financial analyst who is also geo-political analyst, almost by implication, and, again,

whose insights into world events, often deeply historical, offer up some remarkable food for

thought also.

Krainer’s analysis of the unfolding events which culminate in today’s historic meeting are

Also broadly in line with both Doctorow’s and Mercouris, though each having their own

uniquely distinct take. Krainer, like Doctorow, emphasised the what he believes to be the

genuine goodwill that is inherent in Trump to broker a good deal, that is to say against the

neocon death spiral that has been driving American international politics since the beginning

of the cold war. Krainer is very good at voicing his opinion on the malevolent Russophobia

that he sees inherent in all of the governmental policies coming out of the United Kingdom,

and regardless of political parties. Starmer being yet another stooge for the real forces at work

behind the scenes, involving MI6, the banking cartels, military industrial complex and the

aristocracy and political elites. A highly toxic Molotov Cocktail, as he sees it. They, along

with the EU will do anything to derail the process. All three men agree that this is the case,

and Zelensky of course who also needs the war to stay alive, so that he and his entourage

may.

So, here are the three guiding points of view that I digested yesterday, and for the last few

weeks and months and even years. And, so what do I think myself, after taking such diverse

points of view on board? I am, ultimately, also optimistic. I have to be. I think that Trump,

if he remains unaffected by the ideas that were put forward by Starmer, Macron and Mertz

and Zelensky, as he has often voiced, and if Putin should offer him reasons why he should

turn away, once and for all from such neocon ideas of perpetual war, which he vowed he

would do. Well, and this is a lot of ifs, then, I think that finally the future may be one based on

mutual trust and and respect, as the alternative is simply unimaginable horror for us all.

Time will tell!